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-5th International Gold Price ¡è 1.2%
International gold prices showed a sharp rise. Slowing U.S. employment indicators pushed up gold prices.
On Wednesday (local time on the 5th), the price of gold futures for August delivery this year on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2,375.50 per ounce, up 1.2% ($28.1) from the previous day. The gold price, which opened at $2,347.10 per ounce, moved within the range of $2,345.25 to $2,377.59.
The rise in gold prices was due to the slowdown in employment market indicators released ahead of the official U.S. employment report on the 7th. Analysis shows that the U.S. employment market is showing signs of slowing, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, leading to gold buying.
According to the ADP private employment report on that day, private sector employment in May increased by 152,000 from the previous month. This is 23,000 lower than the market forecast of 175,000 compiled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The increase in April was also revised down from 192,000 to 188,000. The wage increase rate remained the same for the third consecutive month at 5% year-on-year.
Following the previous day¡¯s record low of job openings in April in three years, the employment market showed some signs of cooling.
The ADP private sector employment index is a survey result based on information collected by a private information company, and is different from the official employment index compiled by the U.S. government, but the two statistics tend to move in a similar direction.
As the weak ADP private sector employment index came out, U.S. Treasury yields also fell to their lowest level since the 5th, putting upward pressure on gold prices.
Experts predicted that the weak labor force numbers would increase the appeal of gold by adding to concerns that the Fed may have to cut interest rates before the end of the year. On the other hand, if the employment index is strong, gold prices could undergo a short-term adjustment.
¡°If the official U.S. jobs report on Friday is weak, the market will feel much more comfortable with the idea that the Fed could start cutting rates around the end of September,¡± said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. ¡°That will ultimately lead to higher gold prices.¡± Low interest rates are a positive for gold, reducing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold.
The market¡¯s expectations for a rate cut are growing.
On this day, the Bank of Canada (BOC) began its first rate cut in four years. BOC Governor Tiff Macklem also hinted at the possibility of additional rate cuts.
On the 6th, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to make its first rate cut since 2019.
Expectations are growing that the Fed will also cut rates this year, following rate cuts in the euro zone and Canada. Concerns about a zero (0) rate cut this year, which had been weighing on the market, have been alleviated.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25bp cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September was reflected as 58.7%, while the probability of a freeze was reflected as 29.4%.
Meanwhile, silver prices closed at $30.073, up 1.5%, and copper rose 1.5% to $4.6060. Platinum closed at $993.45 per ounce, up 0.6%, and palladium closed at $931.18 per ounce, up 1.7%.
At this time, the international gold price (as of 7 a.m., London LBMA gold price) is moving at $2,355.
Detailed domestic gold price inquiries can be found on the Korea Gold Exchange and Korea Exchange (KRX) websites.
/ Reporter Joo Hong-chul jhc@kjdaily.com
ÁÖȫö ±âÀÚ jhc@kjdaily.com