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-10th International Gold Price ¡è 0.1%
International gold prices showed a strong consolidation. This week, they are waiting for the US consumer price index and FOMC interest rate decision.
On Monday (local time on the 10th), the price of gold futures for August delivery this year at the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2,327.0 per ounce, up 0.1% ($2.0) from the previous trading day. The gold price, which opened at $2,311.0 per ounce, fluctuated within the range of $2,304.50 to $2,331.30.
The gold price, which plunged due to favorable US economic indicators on the previous trading day, recovered slightly, but investment sentiment failed to revive.
The precious metals market was in a wait-and-see mode, waiting for the results of the FOMC June meeting and the CPI figures for May this week.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June meeting, where the Fed discusses the direction of the benchmark interest rate, will be held for two days on the 11th and 12th.
The precious metals market is accepting the Fed¡¯s interest rate freeze as a done deal with a 99% certainty at this meeting. The prolonged high interest rates are a negative factor for gold, which increases the opportunity cost of holding gold that does not pay interest.
In addition, the market predicted that the previous three rate cuts this year will be reduced to two or fewer on the dot plot.
Last week, the solid U.S. employment indicators gave weight to the diagnosis that the Fed¡¯s rate cut is not easy.
Even the European Central Bank (ECB), which took the first step toward rate cuts before the Fed, drew a line on the possibility of consecutive rate cuts in the future.
According to CME Group¡¯s FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting 25bp in September was 45.0%, and the probability of a freeze in September was 51.0%.
On the 12th, when the FOMC¡¯s interest rate decision is made, the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also be announced.
According to expert forecasts compiled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the May CPI is expected to rise 3.4% year-on-year and the core CPI is expected to rise 3.5%.
This is a level that is not much slower than the previous month¡¯s 3.4% year-on-year increase in the CPI and 3.6% increase in the core CPI.
The dollar¡¯s rise on this day also limited the gold price increase. The dollar¡¯s strength was driven by the aftereffects of the strong May employment figures and the waning expectations of a rate cut.
The dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.32% from the previous day to 105.23.
Meanwhile, a precious metals strategist at Heraeus said, ¡°If the Fed starts cutting interest rates, the dollar is also expected to weaken. Historically, a weak dollar has been positive for gold prices,¡± he explained, ¡°but this week¡¯s Fed meeting is not expected to change the U.S. monetary policy.¡± He added, ¡°The timing of the Fed¡¯s first rate cut has not yet been determined, but the market currently expects a rate cut in September.¡±
Silver prices closed at $29.874, up 1.47%, while copper fell 1.3% to $4.5435. Platinum rose 0.8% to $973.60, and palladium fell 0.9% to $904.25.
At this time, the international gold price (as of 7 a.m., London LBMA gold price) is moving around $2,310.
Detailed domestic gold price inquiries can be found on the Korea Gold Exchange and Korea Exchange (KRX) websites.
¡ãThis week¡¯s major indicators and speech schedule
-June 11
Fed FOMC Day 1
May National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index
Oracle Performance
-June 12
Fed FOMC Day 2. Base rate decision, economic outlook announcement
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, press conference
May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Broadcom Performance
-June 13
May Producer Price Index (PPI)
Weekly New Unemployment Insurance Claimants
Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, John Williams, New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President, attend New York Economic Club event
Adobe Performance
-June 14
June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary
May Export Import Price Index
Lisa Cook, Fed Governor Speech
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting Day 2, Base Rate Decision
/Reporter Hong-chul Joo jhc@kjdaily.com
ÁÖȫö ±âÀÚ jhc@kjdaily.com