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-11th International Gold Price ¡é 0.01%
International gold prices showed a weak consolidation. Gold investors seem to be waiting for a new 'clue on the direction of interest rates' that the FOMC will release.
On Tuesday (11th local time), the price of gold futures for August this year at the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2,326.60 per ounce, down 0.01% (0.4 dollars) from the previous trading day.
The gold price, which opened at $2,329.50 per ounce, fluctuated within the range of $2,314.50 to $2,337.30.
Following the previous day, the gold market is taking a wait-and-see approach to the results of this week's FOMC June meeting and the CPI figures for May.
However, the rise in the dollar due to the high possibility of a rate freeze at the FOMC June meeting slightly pulled down the gold price. The dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against six major currencies, rose to 105.46, the highest level in a month since the 14th of last month.
The market's attention today is focused on the FOMC, which determines the direction of the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate.
At the June FOMC, which will be held for two days until the 12th, Fed officials will discuss monetary policy for the next 45 days and conclude the event with a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
In particular, precious metal investors are paying attention to changes in the content of the statement containing the Fed's interest rate decision. The market expects Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to take a relatively dovish (preferring monetary easing) stance in the press conference immediately following the FOMC.
The market is paying keen attention to the announcement of the FOMC results, but in reality, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates before September, and investors have somewhat adapted to this fact.
The market expects the dot plot to be revised downward as interest rates are frozen at the June FOMC meeting.
If the dot plot, which initially predicted three rate cuts this year, predicts two or fewer rate cuts this year, it will be difficult to gain traction in the interest rate cut expectations.
Of course, even if the number of rate cuts decreases, the fact that the Fed will begin a easing cycle this year remains unchanged.
However, the precious metals market is not letting down its guard as conditions for rate cuts are not easy.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate freeze this month is 99.4%. The probability of a freeze in July is also 91.1%.
The probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in September is 48.1%, and the probability of a freeze in September is 47.4%.
Some Wall Street experts, including investment bank JP Morgan, predict that a rate cut will be possible only once this year, around November.
The US CPI in May is expected to ease slightly or stagnate compared to the previous month.
According to expert forecasts compiled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), experts predicted that the CPI in May would rise 3.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and that the increase from the previous month would be 0.1%, a slight decrease from the previous month.
Experts predicted that the core CPI for May would be 3.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month.
This is a slight slowdown or the same level as the previous month's 3.6% and 0.3% year-on-year.
Experts predicted that gold prices would fall in the short term as the FOMC results in June increased the possibility of a rate freeze.
¡°People are nervous about the Fed meeting tomorrow because the Fed won¡¯t signal that they¡¯re going to cut rates anytime soon,¡± said Marex analyst Edward Meir. ¡°That means both the dollar and U.S. interest rates will go up, which will lead to lower gold prices.¡±
Silver prices closed at $29.231, down 2.15%, while copper fell 0.73% to $4.5100. Platinum closed at $955.75, down 1.2%, and palladium closed at $888.33, down 1.7%.
At this time, the international gold price (as of 7 a.m., London LBMA gold price) is moving around $2,316.
Detailed domestic gold prices can be found on the Korea Gold Exchange and Korea Exchange (KRX) websites.
/Reporter Joo Hong-chul jhc@kjdaily.com
ÁÖȫö ±âÀÚ jhc@kjdaily.com